I will come up with some predictions, not from a crystal ball, but as, what I consider, logical consequences.
We must not forget that in the area of mobility the “iPhone” (Tesla’s iPad on wheels) has just been presented and we are toggling between denial, misunderstanding and amazement.
But we know for sure where the iPhone did lead us to in barely ten years.
There will be a rush to get Model 3 and the Model Y. Not because they are electric, there are more electric cars, but because they are completely future proof. Production will be increased on various locations and new factories. lShanghai, Berlin and Austin will be operational in 2021.
Or, as Elon Musk says: “Buying a car in 2019 that can’t upgrade to full self-driving is like buying a horse instead of a car in 1919” (Twitter )
Sales of fossil cars will fall (even slightly) faster than is currently the case. Remember that the Tesla cars I mention are built for a lifespan of one million miles and the coming battery generation will also be able to sustain more than a million miles before there is a relevant decline in capacity (20%). But even then they will still function or fully recycled.
There will be a shift from car “ownership” to car “use”. For a much smaller amount of money than people now spend on a car they will then order one (by app). They choose the model according to their actual need, and this car is ready to take them to work, for example, and after that it continues to drive others. When you go home, another one is ready for you. To the theater? Fine! Of course you can also buy one and then you can put it “to work for you” the time you don’t need itand make money for you. In this way the car pays itself back and the number of cars required will rapidly decrease.
In line with this, we will see that the need for parking spaces will decrease considerably. Where cities and municipalities are still investing heavily in parking lots, parking garages and especially “cash cow models”, these will soon be avoided by the car. The car is going to transport someone else, or return home or wait outside the bustle of the city. Sounds futuristic, it is, but it is future. So in the end we can use the parking structures for other purposes.
I simple want to say with this is that the entire “paid publicparking” story is doomed to disappear in a number of years.
With less car ownership, there will also be much less “personalized” cars (like imitation fur around the steering wheel just to mention something) on a car. That is precisely the reason why the car is minimalistic and everything focuses on the “universal” screen that can be adapted to changing needs at any time through updates and becomes that way timeless.
The so-called business car (company car) with all the tax issues will disappear. This is going to be a reality with a lease price of less than $ 400.00 per month, before savings. The employee will take out a “subscription on usage” himself and for “trips for the boss” he will declare the costs, neatly specified.
The infrastructure will be optimized. Suppose a city center is not suitable for robotaxis (preferably lanes separated from pedestrians and cyclists), then the robot taxis themselves will refuse to get there. Then it will be resolved in no time, believe me.
Autonomous cars themselves will calculate the speeds they need by using various parameters, such as traffic, condition of the road, weather conditions, additional information exchanged, required arrival time and influence of speed on travel time, so that the entire cash-cow model of speed violations and tickets will be history, in the end.
Imagine the “app”. Of course you have all your personal preferences in it, such as the position of your seat, the temperature, your favorite music, your destination and the route to get there. But also what you want to read “en route” or listen to podcast/music, view shared presentations with colleagues and even watch movies. All in perfect cooperation with the screen in the car. With the app you reserve your ride, you get data about the car (like now with Uber), you pay the ride and you undoubtedly get all sorts of useful (and to be feared also useless, like advertising) additional information.
Less casualties. Actually the most important consequence, I should of course have started with this, but on the other hand it is the obvious consequence; the number of road casualties will be minimized because the human driver (if you’re honest, by far most the biggest risk factor) is no longer present.
Cleaner air. And then of course all kinds of benefits occur such as the disappearance of exhaust gasses in population centers, large economic gains because traffic jams no longer exist. (AI is perfectly capable of controlling the traffic in such a way that there are no more traffic jams).
Alternatives, independency from fossil companies. There is at the moment of course an enormous dependency on sources where there are monopolies (everyone needs gasoline) while suddenly alternatives are coming up like generating and storing your own electricity from solar
Finally an interview that clearly illustrates what is going on. And this story comes from an investor, who normally are rather skeptic.